World fears major war more than any other global risk, UN survey finds
War Anxiety Surges in UN Global Risk Survey
Qinilo.com – Fears of a major conflict now outweigh every other global danger in the minds of risk specialists surveyed for the UN’s 2026 Global Risk Report. The change is striking: only two years ago, the possibility of large-scale war was viewed as a much more remote scenario.
The report gathers perspectives from 1,300 participants in government, international bodies, civil society, business and academic institutions across all world regions. They assessed 28 risks spanning politics, the economy, society, the environment and technology, judging their likely impact, probability, urgency and the world’s capacity to respond.
Large-scale war made the largest upward move in the rankings, climbing 16 positions since 2024. Thirty-six per cent of respondents believe its consequences could affect a substantial portion of the global population within one year. Looking seven years ahead, that expectation rises to 76 per cent.
The concern is not limited to the possibility of conflict itself. Survey participants also see global institutions as poorly prepared for such an emergency. Major war was the sole threat to appear among the six leading risks on all four measures: overall significance, immediacy, links with other risks and institutional readiness.
“The findings are sobering. Political risks have moved centre stage. The prospect of large-scale war is seen as far more important and far more immediate than it was two years ago,” Secretary-General António Guterres wrote in the report’s foreword. “At the same time, the institutions expected to respond are seen as less able to act.”
A More Volatile Global Outlook
The survey points to a profound shift in how experts view the world’s risk landscape. Environmental threats, false information and pandemics featured prominently two years ago. In 2026, geopolitical strain, armed conflict and concern over weakening respect for the rule of law have moved to the forefront.
Large-scale war and geopolitical tension now appear in the top 10 threats in each of the seven regions covered by the survey. They rank within the five most serious concerns in six regions. In the 2024 assessment, those risks entered the top five in only one region.
Concern about weapons of mass destruction has also increased. The issue reached the top 10 in Central and Southern Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and Oceania, illustrating how security fears extend well beyond areas experiencing direct conflict.
Regional priorities still vary. In Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, participants highlighted the prospect of a worldwide financial crisis, potential harms linked to artificial intelligence and the growing influence of major technology companies. AI-related threats also entered the top 10 in Europe and North America.
By contrast, pandemics and biological dangers no longer ranked among the top 10 in any region. This represents a sharp departure from two years earlier, when such threats were still considered among the most pressing issues in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Risks That Reinforce Each Other
The report stresses that global threats cannot be treated as isolated problems. Pressure on natural resources, fragmentation in the global economy, misinformation and weaker multilateral institutions can all intensify geopolitical tensions. Those tensions, in turn, may make large-scale conflict more likely.
Participants identified 705 relationships among the risks studied. The strongest connection was the one between geopolitical tension and large-scale war. That finding underlines why prevention requires more than military or diplomatic responses alone: economic resilience, reliable information, functioning institutions and international cooperation can all shape the wider environment in which conflict develops.
Artificial intelligence receives particular attention because worries have grown rapidly over the past two years. Respondents cited AI, other frontier technologies and the concentration of power that they may enable as rising concerns. Yet the multilateral system was viewed as least equipped to deal with technological threats, exposing a gap between the pace of innovation and the capacity to govern it collectively.
Climate Risk Remains Central
Climate change has not disappeared from the global agenda. Failure to take sufficient action on climate change remains the risk rated most important overall, and it ranks highly in every region. Concerns over shortages of natural resources also remain widespread.
The authors warn that a lower position in a ranking should not be read as evidence that environmental risks have become safer. Some dangers may simply receive less public attention while other crises dominate headlines and political debate. Reduced visibility can have real consequences when it leads to weaker funding or less sustained action.
This is especially important for risks that develop gradually. Environmental pressures may not create the same immediate sense of alarm as armed conflict, but they can deepen existing vulnerabilities, strain public resources and heighten competition over essential supplies. The report’s wider message is that competing priorities should not become an excuse to neglect long-term threats.
Funding and Trust Seen as Major Barriers
Respondents named weak governance and poor coordination among the principal obstacles to better risk management. They also pointed to limited political consensus, declining trust, weaker accountability, poor prioritisation and resistance from parts of the public, political leadership or business. Gaps in data were identified as another barrier to effective planning.
Funding was an especially clear concern. Eighty-six per cent of those surveyed said resources for reducing risk are insufficient. The report highlights natural hazards and the possibility of multilateral institutions breaking down as areas that are particularly underfunded.
The assessment is intended as a picture of present perceptions rather than a forecast of inevitable events. Its central conclusion is that collective action remains the strongest means of prevention. Governments, institutions, companies and communities all have roles to play, but none can manage interconnected global threats alone.
For readers, the survey offers a reminder that the most serious dangers rarely arrive as single, separate events. War, climate pressure, technological change, economic fragmentation and weakened cooperation can overlap, making early coordination and credible institutions increasingly important.
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